Cristian Garin vs Jesper De Jong — Prediction
04/04/2026•13:10
#6
Cristian Garin
2:1
7•5
1•6
6•1
Finished
#108
Jesper de Jong
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Cristian Garin, experienced on clay, faces Jesper de Jong, the bookmakers' favorite. The Monte Carlo Masters qualifying match promises to be tight, with a high probability of three sets.
Our predictions
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Statistics from the last 10 non-Grand Slam matches show Garin plays 70% of his matches in 3 sets and De Jong 50%. De Jong, the favorite, loses a set in 90% of his matches as favorite. The probability of a 3-set match is very high.
2.3
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 games in the match
A 3-set match on clay, with players prone to losing their serve (high loss statistics), significantly increases the probability of a high number of games. The 22.5 game mark should be exceeded.
1.92
Confidence
High
Victory of Jesper de Jong
De Jong is the bookmakers' favorite (odds 1.67). He is in slightly better form (4W/6L vs 3W/7L for Garin). However, his poor performance as a favorite (50% wins) and tendency to lose a set make this bet risky.
1.7
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 3 7 | 4 6 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 20% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 70% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 80% | 100% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 28% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 71% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 50% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 80% | 44% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 25% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 14% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 57% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 50% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 90% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 40% | 88% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 0% |
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