Mariano Navone vs Daniel Merida Aguilar — Prediction
05/04/2026•13:10
#28
Mariano Navone
2:1
6•2
4•6
7•5
Finished
#52
Daniel Merida Aguilar
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Mariano Navone, the clear favorite, faces Daniel Merida Aguilar at the Bucharest Open. Navone shows solid form (90% wins in the last 10 matches) and excellent efficiency as a favorite, especially on non-Grand Slam courts where he wins 70% of his matches in 2 sets. Merida Aguilar, more irregular, shows a tendency for 3-set matches (70%). No known injury alerts for either player.
Our predictions
Mariano Navone to Win
Navone is the undisputed favorite (odds 1.39). His recent form is excellent (9 wins/last 10 matches). As a favorite, his win rate is 80% in his last 10 matches in this role. Against an opponent with a 60% win rate and higher odds (2.9), the statistical logic and form dynamics strongly favor him.
1.38
Confidence
Very high
Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)
As a favorite on non-Grand Slam surfaces, Navone wins 70% of his matches in 2 sets ('en2set'). Conversely, Merida Aguilar loses 60% of his matches in 2 sets when he is the favorite ('en2set': 40% wins in 2 sets). Combined with Navone's high win probability, a match in two sets (under 2.5) is the most likely scenario.
1.5
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 Games in the Match
This bet is consistent with the prediction of a 2-set win for Navone. If the match plays out in two tight sets (e.g., 7-5, 6-4), the total games would be 22. A match in two sets with wider scores (e.g., 6-3, 6-3) would yield 18 games. Navone's tendency to win efficiently as a favorite, and Merida Aguilar's tendency to lose in 2 sets, suggest a potentially short match in terms of games. However, confidence is medium as one very tight set could push it over the limit.
1.65
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 9 1 | 6 4 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 22% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 77% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 80% | 80% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 75% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 14% | 37% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 0% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 70% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 71% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 60% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 40% | 60% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 66% | 75% |
Betting actions
Manage your bets and alerts
TODAY'S OFFERS
Exclusive new customer offers