Jessica Pegula vs Yulia Starodubtseva — Prediction
05/04/2026•19:10
#3
Jessica Pegula
2:0
6•2
6•2
Finished
#83
Yulia Starodubtseva
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Jessica Pegula, the seeded player and heavy favorite, faces Yulia Starodubtseva at the Credit One Charleston Open. Pegula, ranked much higher and very comfortable on clay, is in great form with 8 wins in her last 10 matches. Starodubtseva, the underdog, also has a good recent record but will need to produce a huge performance to cause an upset.
Our predictions
Jessica Pegula to Win
Jessica Pegula is the clear favorite. Her ranking, experience, and recent form (8W-2L) are far superior. On clay, her preferred surface, she is even more formidable. Statistics show she wins 100% of her matches as a favorite with odds between 1.0 and 1.2. No known injury alerts.
1.2
Confidence
Very high
Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)
Pegula has a strong tendency to finish her matches in 2 sets, especially as a favorite. Her 'en2set' statistics (non-Grand Slam) show 40% of matches in 2 sets, but her high overall win rate suggests straightforward victories. Starodubtseva, although resilient, has lost 90% of her recent non-Grand Slam matches in 2 sets. The class difference should lead to a 2-0 win for Pegula.
1.41
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 Total Games in the Match
A 2-0 win for Pegula (e.g., 6-3, 6-3 or 6-4, 6-2) would easily lead to a total games count under 22.5. Even if Starodubtseva manages to win a few games, Pegula's expected dominance should limit the total. The form statistics of both players do not show a trend of very tight matches in terms of games.
1.53
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 8 2 | 8 2 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 10% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 100% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 10% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 100% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 40% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 33% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 33% | 66% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 80% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 83% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 40% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 50% | 33% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 0% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 60% |
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