Sloane Stephens vs Tatjana Malek — Prediction
06/04/2026•18:45
#6
Sloane Stephens
2:1
1•6
7•6
6•4
Finished
#45
Tatjana Maria
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Sloane Stephens, the favorite, faces Tatjana Maria. Stephens has mixed recent form (40% wins) but is more effective as a favorite in non-Grand Slam matches (90% wins in 2 sets). Maria, the underdog, has weak form (20% wins) and struggles to win as an outsider. No injuries reported. The match should be tight but Stephens has the edge.
Our predictions
Victory of Sloane Stephens
Stephens is the favorite (odds 1.67). Her statistics as a favorite in non-Grand Slam matches are solid: 90% wins in 2 sets. Maria has weak recent form (20% wins) and 0% wins as an underdog. No injuries disrupt this advantage.
1.68
Confidence
High
Less than 2.5 sets in the match
Stephens has 90% wins in 2 sets as a favorite outside Grand Slam. Maria has 80% recent losses and 80% of her non-Grand Slam matches end in 2 sets. The probability of a 2-set match is high.
1.51
Confidence
High
Less than 22.5 games in the match
With a high probability of a 2-set match, the total games should be moderate. Stephens, as the favorite, can control the sets. However, Maria can resist at times, but her games won statistics as an underdog are weak. Under 22.5 games is plausible.
1.61
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 4 6 | 2 8 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 10% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 100% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 40% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 71% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 40% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 33% | 0% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 60% | 14% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 0% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 30% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 60% | 0% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 42% |
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