Denis Shapovalov vs Alexander Blockx — Prediction
06/04/2026•16:25
#14
Denis Shapovalov
1:2
4•6
6•4
3•6
Finished
#9
Alexander Blockx
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Denis Shapovalov, the favorite and experienced player, faces the young Alexander Blockx at the Monte Carlo Masters on clay. Shapovalov, although less consistent recently, holds a technical advantage and significant experience on this surface. Blockx, promising but less seasoned at the top level, could offer resistance, but sporting logic favors the Canadian.
Our predictions
Denis Shapovalov to Win
Shapovalov is clearly the favorite (odds 1.81). His experience, power, and aptitude on clay (the tournament surface) give him a clear advantage. His statistics as a favorite (60% wins in the last 10 matches) are solid. Blockx, although a recent Challenger winner, lacks experience at this level and his statistics as an outsider against favorites priced around 1.81 are limited.
1.81
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 Sets in the Match
Shapovalov tends to lose sets as a favorite (60% in the last 10). Furthermore, Blockx shows an ability to win at least one set as an outsider (80% in the last 10). The match is played in a best-of-3 sets format (Masters 1000), increasing the probability of a match going to 3 sets or more. Shapovalov's statistics in major tournaments outside Grand Slams indicate 40% of matches go to 3 sets.
2.28
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 Games in the Match
The prediction of a 3-set match (over 2.5 sets) makes over 22.5 games likely. A match in 2 straight sets (6-4, 6-4) would total 20 games. A 3-set match, even with tight sets (e.g., 7-5, 4-6, 6-4 = 32 games), comfortably exceeds the line. Given the offensive profile of both players and the slow surface (clay), breaks may not be too frequent, favoring tight sets and a high total game count.
1.93
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 5 5 | 6 4 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 100% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 40% | 100% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 80% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 60% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 33% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 100% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 40% | 0% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 80% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 80% | 0% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 66% | 33% |
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