Daniil Medvedev vs Matteo Berrettini — Prediction
08/04/2026•11:10
#2
Daniil Medvedev
0:2
0•6
0•6
Finished
#6
Matteo Berrettini
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Daniil Medvedev, the clear favorite, faces Matteo Berrettini at the Rolex Monte Carlo Masters. Medvedev shows solid form and impressive winning statistics as a favorite. Berrettini, the underdog, can be dangerous but his consistency against top players is in question. The match is played on clay, a surface on which Medvedev has improved.
Our predictions
Daniil Medvedev to Win
Medvedev is the logical favorite (odds 1.46). His statistics are overwhelming: 90% win rate as a favorite (9/10) and 80% overall wins in his last 10 matches. Against a lower-ranked opponent and on a surface he is mastering better and better, his consistency and mental strength should make the difference. No known injury alerts.
1.47
Confidence
Very high
Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)
In Masters 1000 tournaments (excluding Grand Slams), Medvedev finishes 80% of his matches in 2 sets when he is the favorite (8/10). Berrettini, for his part, loses 60% of his matches in 2 sets when he is the underdog (6/10 overall, 7/10 specifically). The difference in level and the fast surface of Monte Carlo (for clay) could favor a short match controlled by the favorite.
1.51
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 Games in the Match
This bet is consistent with the prediction of a Medvedev win in 2 sets. If the match takes place in two tight sets (e.g., 7-5, 6-4 = 22 games) or wider, the total number of games will likely remain below the 22.5 mark. Medvedev's statistics as a favorite (few sets conceded) and Berrettini's potential weaknesses on return support this hypothesis. Confidence is medium because a very tight set could exceed the limit.
1.82
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 8 2 | 5 5 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 30% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 80% | 60% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 30% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 60% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 30% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 70% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 90% | 50% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 25% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 50% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 50% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 66% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 70% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 20% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 100% |
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