Fabian Marozsan vs Hubert Hurkacz — Prediction
08/04/2026
#43
Fabian Marozsan
17:00
Today
#7
Hubert Hurkacz
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
First-round match at the Monte-Carlo Masters on clay between local favorite Fabian Marozsan and Poland's Hubert Hurkacz. Marozsan, slightly favored by the odds, faces an experienced opponent. Recent statistics show that both players tend to play tight matches, with a high probability of seeing more than 2.5 sets.
Our predictions
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Historical statistics show a strong trend towards long matches. Marozsan, as a favorite, has lost at least one set in 70% of his recent matches. Hurkacz, as an outsider, has won at least one set in 60% of his recent matches. The combined probability and playing style (Hurkacz's strong serve vs. Marozsan's baseline game) suggest a three-set match.
2.28
Confidence
High
Victory for Fabian Marozsan
Marozsan is designated as the favorite by the odds (1.72 vs. 2.1). His statistics as a favorite (60% wins) are slightly better than Hurkacz's (50%). On clay, his consistency can make the difference. However, Hurkacz is a dangerous opponent, and confidence remains moderate due to the closeness of the odds and recent performances.
1.7
Confidence
Medium
Over 22.5 games in the match
A three-set match on clay increases the probability of many games. The playing styles (Hurkacz's good serve, Marozsan's consistency) can lead to tight sets, potentially with tie-breaks. However, a scenario with two clear sets (e.g., 6-4, 6-4) is also possible, making this bet less certain than the one on sets.
1.76
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 4 6 | 3 7 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 40% | 70% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 30% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 50% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 33% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 66% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 50% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 55% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 75% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 25% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 20% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 0% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 70% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 75% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 80% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 50% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 70% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 75% | 100% |
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