Rugby

Tennis

Raphael Collignon - Luca Van Assche: our prediction

10/04/2026•11:10

#45

Raphael Collignon

2:0

6•4

6•0

Finished

#70

Luca Van Assche

Raphael Collignon vs Luca Van Assche Preview — Monza

Raphael Collignon, the favorite with odds of 1.46, faces Luca Van Assche (odds 2.55) in an ATP match in Monza. Collignon shows solid form (7 wins out of 10) and remarkable efficiency as a favorite, especially on non-Grand Slam courts. Van Assche, more experienced, presents interesting resilience statistics. No injury alerts are reported. The match should be competitive, with a high probability of ending in two sets.

Our Raphael Collignon vs Luca Van Assche predictions

Under 2.5 sets (Match in 2 sets)

Both players' statistics in non-Grand Slam matches indicate a strong tendency for matches to end in two sets. Collignon finished 80% of his recent matches (all statuses) in 2 sets, and 100% of his matches as a favorite in 2 sets. Van Assche finished 70% of his recent matches in 2 sets, and 90% as a favorite. Furthermore, Collignon rarely loses a set as a favorite (only 20%). The probability of a three-set match is therefore low.

1.48

Confidence

Very high

Under 22.5 games in the match

This prediction is consistent with the 'Under 2.5 sets' bet. If the match ends in two sets, the total number of games is highly likely to stay below the 22.5 threshold. Collignon's statistics for quick sets (100% wins in 2 sets as a favorite) suggest he can dominate his sets. Van Assche, although resilient, has shown a limited ability to win as an outsider. A likely scenario is a Collignon victory in two sets with tight but not extremely long scores (e.g., 6-4, 6-3 = 19 games).

1.67

Confidence

High

Victory for Raphael Collignon

Collignon is the designated favorite (odds 1.46) with excellent recent form (70% win rate). His statistics as a favorite are impressive: 80% overall wins and 100% wins in 2 sets in his last 10 matches as a favorite outside Grand Slams. He is very efficient at closing out matches quickly. Against Van Assche, who has a 30% win rate as an outsider, the statistical logic clearly favors Collignon.

1.4

Confidence

High

Market signals on Raphael Collignon vs Luca Van Assche

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Raphael Collignon vs Luca Van Assche Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Raphael Collignon	Luca Van Assche
Win \| Lose	7 3	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	40%	40%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	100%	66%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	33%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	57%
% of match in 4 sets or more	50%	42%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	90%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	66%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	85%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	30%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	60%	37%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	70%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	60%	75%