Matteo Berrettini vs Joao Fonseca — Prediction
09/04/2026•11:10
#6
Matteo Berrettini
0:2
3•6
2•6
Finished
#40
Joao Fonseca
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Matteo Berrettini, former top 10, faces young Brazilian Joao Fonseca at the Monte Carlo Masters. Berrettini, the favorite on paper, is looking to regain his best form on clay. Fonseca, a talented underdog, will try to cause an upset.
Our predictions
Joao Fonseca to Win
Fonseca is the designated favorite (odds 1.65). His recent stats are solid: 70% win rate in his last 10 matches, and 80% win rate when favorite. Berrettini, struggling (50% win rate), has a high rate of losing at least one set as favorite (70%). On clay, the advantage should go to the player in better form.
1.66
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Player statistics in Masters tournaments (excluding Grand Slams) indicate a high probability of a 3-set match. Berrettini often loses a set as favorite (70%), and Fonseca, when underdog, often wins at least one set (70%). Furthermore, both players have a 40% rate of 3-set matches under these conditions. A close match is expected.
2.28
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 games in the match
The prediction of a 3-set match (over 2.5 sets) makes over 22.5 games very plausible. A 2-set match with tight sets (e.g., 7-5, 6-4 = 22 games) could make it fail, but given the serving profiles and Berrettini's tendency to play tight sets, the total games should exceed this threshold, especially if a set goes to a tie-break.
1.8
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 5 5 | 7 3 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 40% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 55% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 44% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 100% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 75% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 25% | 80% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 25% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 60% | 40% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 70% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 25% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 80% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 60% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 75% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 60% |
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