Felix Auger Aliassime vs Casper Ruud — Prediction
09/04/2026•12:45
#6
Felix Auger-Aliassime
0:1
1•3
1st Set
#4
Casper Ruud
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Second-round match at the Monte Carlo Masters between Felix Auger-Aliassime, a talented outsider searching for consistency, and Casper Ruud, the favorite and a recognized clay-court specialist. Historical statistics and recent form give Ruud a clear advantage, especially on this surface.
Our predictions
Casper Ruud to Win
Casper Ruud is the clear favorite (odds 1.66). A clay-court specialist, he has an 80% win rate when favored. His statistics on the number of sets (80% wins in 2 sets as a favorite outside Majors) and his consistency on this surface put him in a strong position against the less consistent Auger-Aliassime.
1.67
Confidence
High
Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)
Player statistics as favorite/outsider outside Majors indicate a high probability of a match in 2 sets. Ruud wins 80% of his matches in 2 sets as a favorite, and Auger-Aliassime loses 90% of his matches in 2 sets as an outsider. This dynamic suggests a short match.
1.54
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 Games in the Match
Given the prediction of a match in 2 sets and the high percentages of wins/losses in 2 sets, the total number of games is likely to remain moderate. If Ruud controls the match as expected, tight but not extremely long sets (e.g., 6-4, 6-3) could keep the total under the 22.5 games mark.
1.87
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 7 3 | 5 5 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 60% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 60% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 40% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 40% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 75% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 75% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 75% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 66% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 75% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 50% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 20% | 62% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 0% |
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