Nicolas Jarry vs Nerman Fatic — Prediction
10/04/2026
#19
Nicolas Jarry
15:45
Today
#80
Nerman Fatic
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Nicolas Jarry, the clear favorite, faces Nerman Fatic in Madrid. Jarry, more experienced and higher-ranked, is expected to win, but Fatic could put up a fight and take a set.
Our predictions
Nicolas Jarry to Win
Nicolas Jarry is the clear favorite (odds 1.40). His status, experience, and recent form (2 wins in last 10 matches, but often as an outsider) point to him as the stronger player. As a favorite (odds 1.21-1.5), he has a 40% win rate in his last 5 matches in this range. No injuries reported.
1.41
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 Games in the Match
A three-set match (previous prediction) increases the likelihood of exceeding 22.5 games. Even in two sets, if the sets are tight (e.g., 7-5, 6-4 = 22 games), the limit is close. Jarry's tendency to drop sets as a favorite and Fatic's ability to win one support this bet. A three-set score like 6-4, 4-6, 6-3 yields 29 games.
1.86
Confidence
Medium
Over 2.5 Sets (Match goes to 3 sets)
Statistics suggest a risk of the favorite dropping a set. Jarry, as a favorite (odds 1.21-1.5), lost at least one set in 60% of his recent matches (3/5). Fatic, as an outsider (odds 1.21-1.5), wins at least one set in 75% of his matches (3/4). The match dynamics and Fatic's level make a three-set match plausible.
2.43
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 2 8 | 4 6 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 40% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 10% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 90% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 40% | 80% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 60% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 10% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 20% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 60% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 60% | 75% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 80% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 60% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 60% | 40% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 50% | 80% |
Betting actions
Manage your bets and alerts
TODAY'S OFFERS
Exclusive new customer offers