Mariano Kestelboim vs Valerio Aboian — Prediction
10/04/2026
Mariano / Marcelo
22:00
Today
Valerio / Santiago
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Match Preview
Mariano Kestelboim, favorite with odds of 1.32, faces Valerio Aboian (odds 3.16) in a Challenger tournament in Campinas. Kestelboim shows solid form as a favorite (80% wins) and a tendency for two-set matches. Aboian, the underdog, has mixed performances but can be competitive. No injuries reported.
Our predictions
Mariano Kestelboim to Win
Kestelboim is the clear favorite (odds 1.32). His statistics as a favorite are solid: 80% wins (4/5). He has won 100% of his matches in two sets when favorite (5/5). Aboian has a low performance as an underdog (20% wins) and has lost 70% of his recent matches. Recent form and favorite status support a Kestelboim win.
1.32
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 Games
With a high probability of a two-set match, the total number of games should be limited. If Kestelboim dominates as expected, tight sets are possible but scores like 6-3, 6-4 (20 games) or 6-4, 6-3 (19 games) are plausible. Aboian can resist, but his poor recent form (30% wins) suggests he may lose sets with moderate margins. The 22.5 game threshold is reasonable for a two-set match.
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Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 2 8 | 3 7 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 60% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 80% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 10% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 16% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 20% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 50% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 40% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 33% | 60% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 20% |
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