Emilio Nava vs David Goffin — Prediction
11/04/2026
#100
Emilio Nava
14:00
Today
#8
David Goffin
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
Emilio Nava, the betting favorite, faces the experienced David Goffin in the BMW Open qualifiers. Nava shows better recent form (4W/6L) compared to Goffin (2W/8L). Statistics suggest a tight match with a high probability of over 2.5 sets.
Our predictions
Over 2.5 sets
Player statistics as favorite/underdog indicate a strong tendency for three-set matches. Nava (favorite) loses at least one set in 70% of cases, and Goffin (underdog) wins one in 70% of cases. Nava's odds (1.47) fall within a range where both players have historically often played long matches.
2.44
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 games
The prediction of over 2.5 sets very likely implies a high total number of games. A three-set match (6-4, 4-6, 6-4) already exceeds 22.5 games. Given the offensive profiles and statistics of tight sets, the 22.5 games threshold should be surpassed.
1.91
Confidence
High
Emilio Nava to win
Nava is the logical favorite (odds 1.47) due to his superior recent form (4W/6L vs. 2W/8L for Goffin). He has a good win rate as a favorite (60%). However, his tendency to lose sets (70%) and Goffin's experience make this bet risky for a straightforward two-set win.
1.49
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 4 6 | 2 8 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 40% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 40% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 20% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 100% | 80% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 44% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 55% | 40% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 30% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 33% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 40% | 16% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 16% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 25% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 70% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 66% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 75% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 90% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 50% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 60% | 83% |
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