Roberto Carballes Baena vs Alex Molcan — Prediction
11/04/2026
#51
Roberto Carballes Baena
14:30
Today
#44
Alex Molcan
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X
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2
Match Preview
BMW Open qualification match on clay between Roberto Carballes Baena, a surface specialist, and Alex Molcan, the bookmakers' favorite. Recent statistics show a slightly better form for Molcan, but Carballes Baena could use his preferred surface to make the match tight.
Our predictions
Alex Molcan to win
Molcan is the designated favorite (odds 1.59). His win statistics as a favorite are solid (80% in the last 10 matches). He shows better recent form (6W/4L vs 5W/5L for Carballes Baena). Although clay is Carballes Baena's preferred surface, the odds and recent stats clearly favor Molcan.
1.58
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Carballes Baena, although the underdog, is a tough competitor on clay. His statistics show he often wins at least one set as an underdog (50%). Furthermore, Molcan, as the favorite, loses a set in 40% of cases. The probability of a three-set match is therefore significant.
2.39
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 5 5 | 6 4 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 40% | 50% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 37% | 14% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 62% | 85% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 40% | 40% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 50% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 33% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 28% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 57% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 50% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 40% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 50% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 40% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 50% | 66% |
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