Jan Choinski vs Marc Andrea Huesler — Prediction
11/04/2026
#118
Jan Choinski
11:00
Today
#58
Marc-Andrea Huesler
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Match Preview
Jan Choinski, the bookmakers' favorite, faces Marc-Andrea Huesler in the BMW Open qualifiers. Choinski shows more solid form and better efficiency as a favorite in non-Grand Slam tournaments. Huesler, more irregular, could offer resistance.
Our predictions
Jan Choinski to win
Choinski is the clear favorite (odds 1.50). His statistics as a favorite are solid: 60% win rate overall and 85.7% win rate with odds between 1.21 and 1.50. His recent form (5W/5L) is better than Huesler's (3W/7L). In non-Grand Slam tournaments, he wins 80% of his matches in 2 sets when favored, indicating an ability to finish quickly.
1.5
Confidence
High
Under 2.5 sets
Historical data from both players in non-Grand Slam tournaments indicates a high probability of a 2-set match. Choinski wins 80% of his matches in 2 sets as a favorite. Huesler, as a favorite, wins 50% in 2 sets, but as an underdog, he loses 60% of his matches in 2 sets. Huesler's recent form (70% losses) suggests he may struggle to push Choinski to a 3rd set.
1.57
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 games
This bet is consistent with the prediction of a Choinski win in 2 sets. If Choinski dominates as expected (potentially 6-3, 6-4 or similar scores), the total number of games should stay under 22.5. Choinski's statistics as a favorite (80% wins in 2 sets) support this scenario. However, Huesler has the ability to win a set as an underdog (70%), which introduces uncertainty about the exact score.
1.8
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 5 5 | 3 7 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 25% | 16% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 75% | 83% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 100% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 25% | 25% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 75% | 75% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 30% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 85% | 25% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 33% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 25% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 33% | 33% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 70% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 83% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 33% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 90% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 42% | 75% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 100% |
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