Luka Pavlovic - Stefano Napolitano: our prediction
11/04/2026•22:40
#186
Luka Pavlovic
0:2
3•6
4•6
Finished
#164
Stefano Napolitano
-
1
-
X
-
2
Luka Pavlovic vs Stefano Napolitano Preview — Mexico City
Close match between Luka Pavlovic and Stefano Napolitano in Mexico City. Napolitano is a slight favorite (odds 1.78) and shows a better two-set win statistic (70%) in recent non-Grand Slam matches. Pavlovic, however, is very competitive as an underdog, often winning at least one set (80%). No injuries reported. A three-set match is likely.
Our Luka Pavlovic vs Stefano Napolitano predictions
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Pavlovic wins at least one set in 80% of his matches as an underdog. Napolitano loses one set in 50% of his matches as a favorite. Their overall set statistics (70% three-set matches for Pavlovic, 30% for Napolitano) point towards a long match.
2.2
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 games in the match
A three-set match (previous prediction) makes a total games over 22.5 very likely. Even a tight two-set match (e.g., 7-6, 7-5) reaches 25 games. The likelihood of a close match supports this bet.
1.81
Confidence
High
Victory for Stefano Napolitano
Napolitano is the bookmakers' favorite (odds 1.78). He has an excellent two-set win statistic (70%) and good performance as a favorite (70% wins). However, Pavlovic is a tough opponent, which explains the medium confidence.
1.69
Confidence
Medium
Market signals on Luka Pavlovic vs Stefano Napolitano
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Luka Pavlovic vs Stefano Napolitano Statistics
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 7 3 | 7 3 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 50% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 80% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 66% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 50% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 90% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 50% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 66% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 83% | 50% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 83% | 20% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 66% |
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