12/04/2026

Marcelo / Mate

12:00

Today

Kevin / Tim

Match Preview

Marcelo Arevalo, the favorite with odds of 1.63, shows solid form (80% wins in the last 10 matches) and a strong tendency to lose at least one set as the favorite (70%). Kevin Krawietz, the underdog at 2.20, is struggling (10% wins) but has a propensity to play matches in two sets (70%). The match takes place on clay at the Monte Carlo Masters. No known injury alerts.

Our predictions

Marcelo Arevalo to Win

Arevalo is clearly the favorite with excellent recent form (8W/2L). His statistics as a favorite (60% wins) and his ability to win against opponents with odds similar to Krawietz's (100% wins as an underdog against odds 1.21-1.5) are convincing. Krawietz is in great difficulty (1W/9L).

1.6

Confidence

High

Over 22.5 Games in the Match

The prediction of a three-set match increases the probability of exceeding 22.5 games. A tight two-set match (e.g., 7-6, 7-5) reaches 24 games. A three-set match, even with one-sided sets, often surpasses this mark. Given Arevalo's tendency to lose sets and Krawietz's potential ability to be competitive in a few games, the over is plausible.

Confidence

Medium

Market Signals

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Success Rate per bet

History

Surface

Win

	Marcelo Arevalo	Kevin Krawietz
Win \| Lose	8 2	1 9
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	60%	0%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	83%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	0%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	33%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	0%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	77%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	66%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	0%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	100%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	66%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	0%	0%

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