Marcelo Arevalo vs Kevin Krawietz — Prediction
12/04/2026
Marcelo / Mate
12:00
Today
Kevin / Tim
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
Marcelo Arevalo, the favorite with odds of 1.63, shows solid form (80% wins in the last 10 matches) and a strong tendency to lose at least one set as the favorite (70%). Kevin Krawietz, the underdog at 2.20, is struggling (10% wins) but has a propensity to play matches in two sets (70%). The match takes place on clay at the Monte Carlo Masters. No known injury alerts.
Our predictions
Marcelo Arevalo to Win
Arevalo is clearly the favorite with excellent recent form (8W/2L). His statistics as a favorite (60% wins) and his ability to win against opponents with odds similar to Krawietz's (100% wins as an underdog against odds 1.21-1.5) are convincing. Krawietz is in great difficulty (1W/9L).
1.6
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 Games in the Match
The prediction of a three-set match increases the probability of exceeding 22.5 games. A tight two-set match (e.g., 7-6, 7-5) reaches 24 games. A three-set match, even with one-sided sets, often surpasses this mark. Given Arevalo's tendency to lose sets and Krawietz's potential ability to be competitive in a few games, the over is plausible.
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Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 8 2 | 1 9 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 0% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 83% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 33% | 0% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 33% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 77% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 66% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 0% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 100% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 66% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 0% |
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