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Tennis

Mariano Kestelboim - Matias Soto: our prediction

14/04/2026•20:10

#68

Mariano Kestelboim

0:2

5•7

1•6

Finished

#223

Matias Soto

Mariano Kestelboim vs Matias Soto Preview — Santa Cruz

Matias Soto, the clear favorite (odds 1.17), faces Mariano Kestelboim (odds 4.47) in a Challenger tournament in Santa Cruz. Soto shows solid form (8 wins in last 10 matches) and excellent efficiency as a favorite (90% win rate). Kestelboim, often the underdog, struggles in this role (10% win rate). Recent statistics suggest a match likely to be short, finishing in two sets.

Our Mariano Kestelboim vs Matias Soto predictions

Matias Soto to Win

Matias Soto is the undisputed favorite (odds 1.17). His statistics are impressive: 8 wins in his last 10 matches (80%) and a 90% win rate when favored. Facing him, Kestelboim wins only 20% of his recent matches and only 10% as an underdog. The difference in level and confidence is clear.

1.07

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)

Both players finish 80% of their recent matches (outside Grand Slams) in 2 sets. As a favorite, Soto finishes 80% of his matches in 2 sets, and Kestelboim, as an underdog, also finishes 80% of his matches in 2 sets. The probability of a 3-set match (20% for each) is low, supporting the thesis of a quick Soto victory.

1.21

Confidence

High

Market signals on Mariano Kestelboim vs Matias Soto

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Mariano Kestelboim vs Matias Soto Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Mariano Kestelboim	Matias Soto
Win \| Lose	2 8	8 2
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	0%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	90%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	66%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	10%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	66%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	20%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	20%	33%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	66%