Emilio Nava vs Ben Shelton — Prediction
13/04/2026
#100
Emilio Nava
14:00
Today
#6
Ben Shelton
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X
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2
Match Preview
Ben Shelton, the clear favorite (odds 1.35), faces Emilio Nava (odds 3.06) at the BMW Open. Recent statistics show that Shelton is more consistent and performs better as a favorite, while Nava struggles against heavily favored opponents. The match should be competitive, with a high probability of over 2.5 sets.
Our predictions
Ben Shelton to Win
Ben Shelton is the logical favorite (odds 1.35). His statistics as a favorite are solid: 80% win rate overall and 70% win rate with odds between 1.21 and 1.50. Facing an opponent like Nava, who wins only 16.7% of the time against favorites in this odds range, Shelton has a significant advantage. No reported injuries contradict this status.
1.35
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 Sets in the Match
Set statistics strongly support a three-set match. As a favorite, Shelton loses at least one set in 70% of his matches. Nava, as an underdog, wins at least one set in 60% of his matches. Furthermore, in non-Grand Slam matches, Shelton plays 80% of his matches in three sets as a favorite, and Nava plays 70% of his matches in two sets as an underdog, but this often includes a 1-2 loss. The dynamics suggest Nava can win a set.
2.36
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 Games in the Match
This bet is consistent with the prediction of a three-set match. A three-set match (e.g., 7-5, 4-6, 6-4) easily exceeds the 22.5 games mark. Given the high probability of three sets and the fact that both players can contest tight sets (Shelton often losing a set, Nava capable of winning one), the total games should be high. Confidence is medium because a tight two-set match could also reach this total, but a three-set match makes it very likely.
1.67
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 5 5 | 7 3 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 40% | 70% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 30% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 70% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 100% | 30% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 44% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 55% | 40% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 75% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 75% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 25% | 100% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 16% | 66% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 100% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 66% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 70% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 50% | 75% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 75% | 100% |
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