Matias Soto vs Gonzalo Bueno — Prediction
17/04/2026
#198
Matias Soto
01:00
Tomorrow
#177
Gonzalo Bueno
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
Gonzalo Bueno, the favorite with odds of 1.70, faces Matias Soto in an ATP match on clay. Soto shows solid form (80% wins in the last 10 matches) but Bueno is slightly favored by the bookmakers. No injuries reported. The match could be tight, with a tendency for Soto to win in two sets and a propensity for Bueno to lose a set even as the favorite.
Our predictions
Gonzalo Bueno to Win
Bueno is designated as the favorite (odds 1.70). Although Soto has better recent form (80% vs 70% wins), Bueno has a lower odds, indicating a higher perceived probability of winning. As a favorite, Bueno wins 70% of the time. No injuries disrupt this dynamic.
1.71
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 Sets in the Match
Statistics suggest a potentially long match. Soto wins 80% of his matches in 2 sets, but Bueno, as a favorite, loses at least one set 60% of the time. Furthermore, 50% of Bueno's non-Major matches go to 3 sets. The combination of Soto's solid form and Bueno's tendency to lose sets as a favorite makes a three-set match plausible.
2.28
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 Games in the Match
The prediction of a three-set match (over 2.5 sets) significantly increases the probability of exceeding 22.5 games. Even a tight two-set match (e.g., 7-5, 7-5) reaches 24 games. Given the expected competitiveness and Bueno's tendency to play tight sets as a favorite (60% loss of a set), the total games should exceed 22.5.
1.96
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 8 2 | 7 3 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 100% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 60% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 25% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 75% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 20% | 25% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 75% | 75% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 60% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 14% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 50% | 60% |
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