Marta Kostyuk vs Veronika Podrez — Prediction
19/04/2026•15:40
#18
Marta Kostyuk
2:0
6•3
6•4
Finished
#209
Veronika Podrez
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Marta Kostyuk, the seeded and significantly higher-ranked player, faces qualifier Veronika Podrez in the round of 16 of the WTA tournament in Rouen. Kostyuk is the heavy favorite with odds at 1.13. Recent statistics show her consistency and ability to finish matches quickly when favored.
Our predictions
Marta Kostyuk to Win
Kostyuk is the undisputed favorite (odds 1.13). Her statistics as a favorite are solid: 80% win rate (8/10) and 100% win rate (5/5) with odds between 1.21 and 1.5. She has a 70% win rate in her last 10 matches, compared to 75% for Podrez in 8 matches, but against much lower-level opposition. The ranking and experience gap is significant.
1.13
Confidence
Very high
Under 2.5 Sets in the Match
The match is played as best of 2 winning sets (standard WTA format). The players' statistics outside Grand Slams indicate a strong tendency for 2-set matches: Kostyuk 80% (8/10), Podrez 87.5% (7/8). Furthermore, Kostyuk loses a set as a favorite only 40% of the time (4/10), and Podrez has never lost a set as a favorite (0/3), but she is a heavy underdog here. The dynamics favor a 2-set match.
1.3
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 Games in the Match
When favored, Kostyuk finishes 60% of her matches in 2 sets (6/10). Podrez, as an outsider, loses 80% of her matches in 2 sets (4/5). Kostyuk has a very low odds (1.13), indicating a likely clear victory. A match in 2 sets (e.g., 6-3, 6-4) gives 20 games, under 22.5. The probability of a tight 3-set match is low.
1.37
Confidence
High
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 7 3 | 6 2 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 70% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 90% | 100% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 66% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 100% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 14% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 33% | 0% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 28% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 0% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 0% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 33% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 0% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 0% |
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