Flavio Cobolli vs Ben Shelton — Prediction
19/04/2026•13:40
#14
Flavio Cobolli
0:2
2•6
5•7
Finished
#6
Ben Shelton
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Ben Shelton, the betting favorite, faces Flavio Cobolli on clay at the BMW Open. Shelton, stronger on hard courts, must adapt to the surface. Cobolli, more comfortable on clay, looks to cause an upset. Recent stats show Shelton often wins in three sets outside Majors, while Cobolli often finishes his matches in two sets when favored. No injuries reported.
Our predictions
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Ben Shelton (favorite) loses at least one set in 70% of his matches as favorite. Flavio Cobolli wins at least one set in 60% of his matches as underdog. Outside Majors, Shelton plays 70% of his matches in three sets, and Cobolli 30% in three sets. The probability of a three-set match is high.
2.17
Confidence
High
Ben Shelton to win
Shelton is the betting favorite (1.74). He has an 80% win rate as favorite in his last 10 matches, compared to 60% for Cobolli. Although clay is not his preferred surface, his power and serve can make the difference. Cobolli, although solid, has a lower win rate (70% overall) and is the underdog here.
1.73
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 games in the match
A three-set match (main prediction) makes over 22.5 games likely. If each set is tight (e.g., 7-5, 6-7, 6-4), the total exceeds 22.5. However, if Shelton or Cobolli wins a set decisively, the total could be right around the limit. Shelton's tendency to play tight sets (70% loss of a set as favorite) supports this option.
1.64
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 7 3 | 7 3 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 70% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 40% | 30% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 70% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 30% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 40% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 40% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 75% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 75% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 100% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 66% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 57% | 100% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 66% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 71% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 70% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 75% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 33% | 75% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 66% | 50% |
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