Cristian Garin vs Nicolas Jarry — Prediction
20/04/2026
#6
Cristian Garin
10:00
Today
#19
Nicolas Jarry
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
Cristian Garin faces Nicolas Jarry in the Madrid Open qualifiers. Garin is the favorite with odds of 1.47 against 2.57 for Jarry. Recent statistics show similar form, with 40% wins each in the last 10 matches. The match is played on clay, the preferred surface for both Chilean players. No significant injuries are reported.
Our predictions
Cristian Garin to Win
Cristian Garin is designated as the favorite (odds 1.47). His statistics as a favorite are solid (70% wins). On clay, his preferred surface, he has a technical advantage. Jarry, although dangerous, has a low win rate as an outsider (10%). Recent form is equivalent, but favorite status and surface favor Garin.
1.47
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 Sets in the Match
Player statistics in non-Grand Slam matches show a strong tendency for 3-set matches (50% each). Furthermore, when favorite, Garin loses at least one set in 50% of cases. Jarry, as an outsider, wins at least one set in 50% of cases. The Chilean rivalry and the stakes of the qualifiers suggest a tight and long match.
2.3
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 Games in the Match
The prediction of a 3-set match (over 2.5 sets) increases the likelihood of a high number of games. On clay, rallies are often long. If each set is tight (e.g., 7-5, 6-7, 6-4), the total easily exceeds 22.5 games. However, a clear win in 2 tight sets could reach this threshold, but it's less likely. The trend of close matches supports this bet.
1.78
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 4 6 | 4 6 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 60% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 10% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 80% | 90% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 50% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 50% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 60% | 50% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 10% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 20% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 0% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 40% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 50% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 60% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 60% | 75% |
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