Elmer Moeller vs Hugo Gaston — Prediction
20/04/2026
#126
Elmer Moeller
11:30
Today
#62
Hugo Gaston
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X
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2
Match Preview
Hugo Gaston, the clear favorite (odds 1.49), faces Elmer Moeller in the Madrid Open qualifiers. Gaston shows superior form (60% win rate in last 10 matches) and excellent efficiency as a favorite (80%). Moeller, struggling (30% win rate), could offer resistance, but statistical logic points to a Gaston victory, potentially in two sets.
Our predictions
Hugo Gaston to Win
Hugo Gaston is the logical favorite (odds 1.49). His form statistics are clearly superior: 60% win rate in the last 10 matches compared to 30% for Moeller. His win rate as a favorite is 80%, demonstrating his reliability in this role. Moeller, struggling (70% recent losses) and ineffective as an outsider (20% win rate), should yield to his opponent's consistency and status.
1.49
Confidence
High
Under 2.5 Sets (Match in 2 Sets)
The players' statistics in non-Grand Slam matches (tournament format) indicate a strong tendency for two-set matches. Both Gaston and Moeller have an 80% rate of two-set matches in their last 10 non-Grand Slam matches. Furthermore, when he is the favorite, Gaston finishes 70% of his matches in two sets. Considering the form imbalance and the clay surface which can speed up matches, a two-set match is the most likely scenario.
1.55
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 Games in the Match
This bet is consistent with the prediction of a two-set match. For the total number of games to stay under 22.5, a two-set score like 6-4, 6-4 (20 games) or 6-3, 6-4 (19 games) is required. Gaston, as the favorite, has a 50% rate of losing at least one set when he is favored with similar odds (1.21-1.5), which could lead to a tight set. However, Moeller's poor form (20% win rate as an outsider against favorites with odds 1.21-1.5) suggests he might lose sets more cleanly, limiting the total number of games.
1.76
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 3 7 | 6 4 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 66% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 33% | 40% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 66% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 33% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 66% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 33% | 30% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 80% | 80% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 80% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 20% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 25% | 33% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 20% | 33% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 75% | 50% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 20% | 80% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 75% | 20% |
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