Yuta Shimizu vs Yasutaka Uchiyama — Prediction
21/04/2026
#128
Yuta Shimizu
04:00
Today
#30
Yasutaka Uchiyama
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Match Preview
ATP match in Gwangju between Yuta Shimizu and Yasutaka Uchiyama. Uchiyama is the favorite (odds 1.75) with better recent form (60% wins in last 10 matches vs 40% for Shimizu). Statistics suggest a tight match, potentially going to three sets.
Our predictions
Yasutaka Uchiyama to Win
Uchiyama is the designated favorite (odds 1.75) and shows better recent form (6W/4L vs 4W/6L for Shimizu). His statistics as a favorite (70% win rate) are solid. No known injury alert contradicts this status.
1.74
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 Sets in the Match
Both players have tendencies for long matches. Outside Majors, Shimizu plays 50% of his matches in 3 sets, Uchiyama 60%. Furthermore, Uchiyama often loses a set as a favorite (60% of the time), and Shimizu often wins a set as an underdog (40%). This favors a three-set match.
2.24
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 Games in the Match
The prediction of a three-set match (over 2.5 sets) significantly increases the probability of exceeding 22.5 total games. Even a tight two-set match (e.g., 7-5, 7-6) could reach this threshold. Considering the player profiles and likelihood of competitive sets, the over 22.5 games bet is consistent with the other two picks.
1.79
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 4 6 | 6 4 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 28% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 71% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 33% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 66% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 20% | 40% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 40% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 80% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 80% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 60% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 60% |
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