Ilia Simakin vs Soon Woo Kwon — Prediction
22/04/2026
#164
Ilia Simakin
05:40
Today
#50
Soon-Woo Kwon
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
First-round match in Gwangju between young Ilia Simakin and the more experienced Soon-Woo Kwon. Kwon is the clear favorite on paper, but recent form statistics show Simakin can be a tough opponent, especially in winning sets when he is the underdog.
Our predictions
Victory for Soon-Woo Kwon
Kwon is the designated favorite (odds 1.40). His statistics as a favorite are solid (70% wins in the last 10 matches). He also has a very high 2-set win rate (80%) as a favorite outside of Grand Slams, which matches the format of this tournament. His experience should make the difference.
1.37
Confidence
High
Under 2.5 sets (Match in 2 sets)
When favorite outside of Grand Slams, Kwon finishes his matches in 2 sets 80% of the time. Simakin, as an underdog, loses in 2 sets 50% of the time. The probability of a match in 2 sets (2-0 win for Kwon) is therefore high. This prediction is consistent with Kwon's victory.
1.5
Confidence
High
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 7 3 | 7 3 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 60% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 25% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 75% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 50% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 90% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 66% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 75% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 33% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 60% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 66% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 60% | 50% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 40% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 100% | 33% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 71% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 50% | 0% |
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