Rugby

Tennis

Vilius Gaubas - Sebastian Baez: our prediction

23/04/2026•15:30

#117

Vilius Gaubas

2:0

7•5

6•1

Finished

#25

Sebastian Baez

Vilius Gaubas vs Sebastian Baez Preview — Madrid Open

Sebastian Baez, clear favorite (odds 1.42), faces Vilius Gaubas (odds 2.87) at the Madrid Open. Baez, more experienced and better on clay, is expected to win, but Gaubas could resist and take a set.

Our Vilius Gaubas vs Sebastian Baez predictions

Sebastian Baez to Win

Baez is the logical favorite (odds 1.42). His stats as a favorite are solid (70% win rate). On clay, his preferred surface, and with more top-level experience, he should control the match. No known injury alert.

1.36

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games in the Match

Baez has a high rate of 2-set wins (90% outside Majors). If the match goes as expected with a Baez win in 2 sets (potentially 6-3, 6-4), the total games should stay under 22.5. Even in 3 sets, tight sets are not guaranteed.

1.68

Confidence

Medium

Match in 3 Sets (Over 2.5 Sets)

Gaubas has a tendency to win a set as an outsider (60% in his last 10). Baez, although favorite, loses a set in 40% of cases. The Best-of-3 format in Madrid leaves room for a tight set from Gaubas.

2.4

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Vilius Gaubas vs Sebastian Baez

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Vilius Gaubas vs Sebastian Baez Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Vilius Gaubas	Sebastian Baez
Win \| Lose	4 6	4 6
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	60%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	10%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	90%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	30%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	83%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	75%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	75%	66%