Dalma Galfi vs Ajla Tomljanovic — Prediction

This bet is consistent with Tomljanovic's expected win. When favored in non-Grand Slam tournaments, she wins 100% of her matches in 2 sets (10/10). Furthermore, Galfi, as an underdog, loses 70% of her matches in 2 sets. The combined probability of a 2-set match is high. This bet does not contradict 'Over 22.5 Games', as a tight 2-set match (e.g., 7-6, 7-5) can easily exceed 22.5 games.

Several factors support a long match. Galfi, as an underdog, wins at least one set 40% of the time. Tomljanovic, although dominant in 2 sets, loses a set as a favorite 20% of the time. Their 3-set match statistics (20-40% depending on context) and the expected competitiveness make it likely the match exceeds 22.5 games, which often equates to a tight 2-set match (e.g., 7-6, 6-4 = 23 games) or a 3-set match.

Tomljanovic is clearly the favorite (odds 1.71). Her statistics are impressive: 90% win rate as a favorite in her last 10 matches, and 100% wins in 2 sets when favored in non-Grand Slam tournaments. Her recent form (5W/5L) is slightly better than Galfi's (4W/6L). She also has a good overall win rate (50%). No reported injuries strengthen her position.