Dalma Galfi vs Ajla Tomljanovic — Prediction
22/04/2026
#100
Dalma Galfi
13:00
Today
#31
Ajla Tomljanovic
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Match Preview
Dalma Galfi faces Ajla Tomljanovic at the Madrid Open. Tomljanovic is the favorite with odds of 1.71, showing solid form and excellent performance as a favorite (90% wins). Galfi, the underdog, has demonstrated an ability to win sets. No injuries reported. A tight match is expected, with a significant probability of seeing over 22.5 games.
Our predictions
Under 2.5 Sets
This bet is consistent with Tomljanovic's expected win. When favored in non-Grand Slam tournaments, she wins 100% of her matches in 2 sets (10/10). Furthermore, Galfi, as an underdog, loses 70% of her matches in 2 sets. The combined probability of a 2-set match is high. This bet does not contradict 'Over 22.5 Games', as a tight 2-set match (e.g., 7-6, 7-5) can easily exceed 22.5 games.
1.56
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 Games
Several factors support a long match. Galfi, as an underdog, wins at least one set 40% of the time. Tomljanovic, although dominant in 2 sets, loses a set as a favorite 20% of the time. Their 3-set match statistics (20-40% depending on context) and the expected competitiveness make it likely the match exceeds 22.5 games, which often equates to a tight 2-set match (e.g., 7-6, 6-4 = 23 games) or a 3-set match.
1.9
Confidence
High
Ajla Tomljanovic to Win
Tomljanovic is clearly the favorite (odds 1.71). Her statistics are impressive: 90% win rate as a favorite in her last 10 matches, and 100% wins in 2 sets when favored in non-Grand Slam tournaments. Her recent form (5W/5L) is slightly better than Galfi's (4W/6L). She also has a good overall win rate (50%). No reported injuries strengthen her position.
1.73
Confidence
High
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 4 6 | 5 5 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 66% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 40% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 90% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 80% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 33% | 25% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 80% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 75% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 20% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 33% | 0% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 40% |
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