Sara Errani vs Nadiia Kichenok — Prediction
24/04/2026
Sara / Jasmine
11:00
Tomorrow
Nadiia / Makoto
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X
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2
Match Preview
Sara Errani faces Nadiia Kichenok in the first round of the 2026 Madrid Open. Errani, a clay court specialist, is the favorite but has lost 8 of her last 10 matches. Kichenok, less experienced on this surface, has a record of 3 wins in 10.
Our predictions
Victory for Sara Errani
Errani is the favorite on clay, her preferred surface. Despite her poor recent form (20% wins), she has a 90% win rate when favored. Kichenok has a low win rate as an underdog (40%) and lacks Errani's experience on this surface.
1.12
Confidence
High (65 %)
Under 2.5 sets in the match
Errani has finished 50% of her matches in 2 sets (outside Grand Slams) and 70% when favored. Kichenok has 60% of her matches in 2 sets. The probability of a 2-set match is high, especially since Errani is favored and Kichenok struggles to win sets as an underdog (only 40% wins of at least 1 set).
1.6
Confidence
High (65 %)
Under 22.5 games in the match
With a high probability of a 2-set match (under 2.5 sets), the total number of games should be under 22.5. Errani, as the favorite, tends to win quickly, and Kichenok struggles to win games. However, there is a risk of a tight match, hence medium confidence.
1.7
Confidence
Medium (50 %)
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 2 8 | 3 7 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 90% | 50% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 83% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 10% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 20% | 0% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 70% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 40% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 0% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 50% | 0% |
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