Marie Bouzkova vs Jelena Ostapenko — Prediction
24/04/2026
Marie / Linda
11:00
Tomorrow
Jelena / Erin
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
First round match of the Madrid Open between Marie Bouzkova and Jelena Ostapenko. Bouzkova is in good form with 70% recent wins, while Ostapenko has a 40% win record. Bouzkova dominates in 2 sets (80%) and Ostapenko is more erratic (50% of matches in 3 sets). No injuries reported.
Our predictions
Victory for Marie Bouzkova
Bouzkova has 70% recent wins compared to 40% for Ostapenko. Bouzkova is the favorite and has an 80% win rate when favored. Ostapenko has a 60% loss rate and performs worse as an underdog (30% wins). Bouzkova dominates in 2 sets (80%), strengthening her probability of victory.
1.8
Confidence
High
Under 2.5 sets in the match
Bouzkova wins 80% of her matches in 2 sets. Ostapenko has 50% of matches in 2 sets. The probability of the match ending in 2 sets is high, especially with Bouzkova as favorite. Statistics show a clear trend towards a match under 2.5 sets.
1.5
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 games in the match
Bouzkova wins 80% of her matches in 2 sets, limiting the number of games. Ostapenko, although erratic, has 50% of matches in 2 sets. The trend is towards a fast match with Bouzkova as favorite. Total games should stay under 22.5.
1.7
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 7 3 | 4 6 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 10% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 10% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 20% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 33% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 80% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 10% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 33% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 70% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 33% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 80% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 66% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 37% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 40% |
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