Rugby

Tennis

Jessica Pegula - Katie Boulter: our prediction

24/04/2026•21:45

Jessica Pegula

2:0

6•4

Finished

#29

Katie Boulter

Jessica Pegula vs Katie Boulter Preview — Madrid Open

Jessica Pegula, the favorite, faces Katie Boulter at the Madrid Open. Pegula is in great form with 80% recent wins, while Boulter has a balanced record. The match is on clay, a surface that suits Pegula.

Our Jessica Pegula vs Katie Boulter predictions

Victory for Jessica Pegula

Jessica Pegula is the heavy favorite with odds of 1.14. She has won 80% of her recent matches and 100% as a favorite. Katie Boulter has only a 50% win rate and has not beaten a top-10 player recently. Pegula is very solid on clay.

1.12

Confidence

Very high

Under 22.5 games in the match

With Pegula as favorite and a tendency to win in 2 sets, the total number of games should be under 22.5. Boulter's matches as an underdog often end in 2 sets (80%), limiting the number of games. Pegula is effective on serve and return, reducing games.

1.34

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Katie Boulter finishes 70% of her matches in 2 sets, and Pegula 50% in 2 sets. As a favorite, Pegula often wins in 2 sets. The probability of the match going to 3 sets is low, as Boulter struggles against favorites.

1.29

Confidence

High

Market signals on Jessica Pegula vs Katie Boulter

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Jessica Pegula vs Katie Boulter Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Jessica Pegula	Katie Boulter
Win \| Lose	8 2	5 5
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	10%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	10%	40%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	100%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	83%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	100%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	30%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	33%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	40%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	40%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	66%	25%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	60%