Elise Mertens vs Caty Mcnally — Prediction
23/04/2026•17:45
Elise / Shuai
2:1
6•2
3•6
10•7
Finished
Caty / Jessica
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
First round match of the Madrid Open between Elise Mertens and Caty McNally. Mertens, favorite on clay, shows solid form with 70% wins as favorite. McNally, less comfortable on this surface, has a balanced record but lost 7 of her last 10 matches as favorite. The match promises to be tight, with a tendency towards three sets.
Our predictions
Victory for Elise Mertens
Mertens is the favorite and has a 70% win rate when favored. McNally has a low win rate as an outsider (10%). Clay is Mertens' preferred surface.
1.68
Confidence
High (65 %)
Over 2.5 sets in the match
McNally tends to play matches in 3 sets (70% of her non-Grand Slam matches). Mertens also has 30% of her matches in 3 sets. The match is tight and could go to a tiebreak.
2.1
Confidence
High (65 %)
Under 22.5 games in the match
Although the match could go to 3 sets, both players tend to win or lose with tight scores. Mertens often wins in 2 sets when favored (80%). A 3rd set could be decisive without too many games.
1.8
Confidence
Medium (50 %)
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 5 5 | 5 5 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 10% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 40% | 0% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 33% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 50% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 50% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 40% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 20% | 10% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 25% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 50% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 75% | 75% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 70% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 50% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 33% | 60% |
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