Marcelo Arevalo vs Tommy Paul — Prediction
26/04/2026•11:10
Marcelo / Mate
2:0
6•4
7•6
Finished
Tommy / Ethan
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1
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X
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2
Match Preview
Madrid Open match between Marcelo Arevalo and Tommy Paul. Arevalo is a doubles specialist, while Paul is a higher-ranked singles player. Paul is the favorite with odds of 1.12.
Our predictions
Tommy Paul Victory
Tommy Paul is a singles player ranked much higher than Marcelo Arevalo, a doubles specialist. Paul has a 90% win rate as a favorite and 70% overall. Arevalo has a win rate of only 33.3% as an underdog. The very low odds (1.12) confirm Paul's expected dominance.
5.76
Confidence
Very high
Under 2.5 sets in the match
This bet is consistent with the 'under 22.5 games' bet. The probability of the match ending in 2 sets is high. Arevalo loses 44.4% of his matches in 2 sets as an underdog, and Paul wins 50% of his matches in 2 sets as a favorite. A 2-set match is therefore the most likely scenario.
5.9
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 games in the match
Tommy Paul is an overwhelming favorite and should win easily. Arevalo, as an underdog, tends to lose in 2 sets (44.4% of his matches as an underdog end in 2 sets). Paul, as a favorite, wins 50% of his matches in 2 sets. A quick, Paul-dominated match is likely, keeping the total number of games low.
5.9
Confidence
High
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 8 2 | 7 3 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 70% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 30% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 40% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 60% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 83% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 33% | 77% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 33% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 20% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 77% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 66% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 60% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 70% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 66% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 77% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 0% |
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