Daniil Medvedev vs Flavio Cobolli — Prediction
28/04/2026•21:10
#2
Daniil Medvedev
0:1
3•6
2nd Set
#11
Flavio Cobolli
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Daniil Medvedev, the favorite, faces Flavio Cobolli at the 2026 Madrid Open. Medvedev is in good form on clay, while Cobolli looks to cause an upset.
Our predictions
Under 2.5 sets in the match
Statistics outside Grand Slams show Medvedev wins in 2 sets 70% of the time and Cobolli 80%. This match is not a Grand Slam, so the probability of under 2.5 sets is high.
1.56
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 games in the match
Both players tend to finish matches in 2 sets outside of Grand Slams (Medvedev 70%, Cobolli 80%). The match is played outdoors (Madrid Open, non-Grand Slam), favoring a tight score. The odds of 1.99 are attractive.
1.92
Confidence
High
Victory for Daniil Medvedev
Medvedev is the favorite with odds of 1.78. He has a 70% win rate in his last 10 matches and 80% when favored. Cobolli, though solid, has a 70% win rate but only 60% as an underdog. Medvedev is more experienced and higher ranked.
1.77
Confidence
High
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 7 3 | 7 3 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 80% | 40% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 50% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 60% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 60% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 50% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 50% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 66% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 50% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 66% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 40% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 33% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 40% | 20% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 50% | 75% |
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