Hubert Hurkacz vs Matteo Arnaldi — Prediction
03/05/2026
#7
Hubert Hurkacz
15:00
Today
#38
Matteo Arnaldi
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Match Preview
Hubert Hurkacz, the favorite, faces Matteo Arnaldi in Cagliari. Hurkacz has a 70% win rate in his last 10 matches, while Arnaldi is at 50%. Hurkacz is favored with odds of 1.34.
Our predictions
Hubert Hurkacz to win
Hurkacz is the favorite with odds of 1.34 and a 70% win rate in his last 10 matches. Arnaldi has a 50% win rate and is less effective as an outsider (20% wins). Hurkacz is more solid and should win.
1.35
Confidence
High
Under 2.5 sets in the match
Hurkacz wins 60% of his matches in 2 sets (excluding Grand Slams), while Arnaldi only wins 30%. With Hurkacz as favorite, he is likely to win in 2 sets, meaning under 2.5 sets.
1.5
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 games in the match
Hurkacz tends to win in 2 sets (60% of his matches in 2 sets excluding Grand Slams). Arnaldi has a rate of 30% in 2 sets. With Hurkacz as favorite, the match could end quickly in 2 sets, limiting the total number of games.
1.82
Confidence
Medium
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 7 3 | 5 5 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 70% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 30% | 50% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 55% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 33% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 33% | 30% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 66% | 70% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 42% | 75% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 50% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 50% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 25% | 33% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 75% | 66% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 70% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 71% | 75% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 100% | 50% |
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