Pablo Carreno Busta vs Martin Damm — Prediction
04/05/2026
#10
Pablo Carreno Busta
11:30
Today
#33
Martin Damm
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X
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2
Match Preview
Qualification match of the Internazionali di Roma between Pablo Carreno Busta, the favorite, and Martin Damm. Carreno Busta, an experienced clay-court player, is favored with odds of 1.49, while Damm is the underdog at 2.44. Statistics show Carreno Busta wins 70% of his matches and 90% as favorite, while Damm wins 40% of his matches. The match is played in best-of-three sets.
Our predictions
Victory of Pablo Carreno Busta
Pablo Carreno Busta is an experienced clay-court player, ranked much higher than Martin Damm. He wins 70% of his matches and 90% when favorite. Damm, on the other hand, only wins 40% of his matches and 70% as favorite, but here he is the underdog. The odds of 1.49 for Carreno Busta are very attractive given his form and experience on this surface.
1.49
Confidence
Very high
Under 2.5 sets in the match
Carreno Busta wins 70% of his matches in two sets when favorite, and Damm loses 80% of his matches in two sets when underdog. This indicates a high probability that the match will end in two sets, thus under 2.5 sets. This bet is consistent with the 'under 22.5 games' bet.
2.44
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 games in the match
Carreno Busta, as favorite, tends to win his matches in straight sets (70% of his matches in two sets). Martin Damm, as underdog, also has a high rate of matches in two sets (80%). The combination of these two trends suggests the match could end quickly, with under 22.5 games. The odds of 2.44 are interesting.
2.44
Confidence
High
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 7 3 | 4 6 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 40% | 10% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 100% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 30% | 50% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 90% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 80% | 75% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 80% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 40% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 75% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 40% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 33% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 40% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 40% |
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