Daniel Merida Aguilar vs Mackenzie Mcdonald — Prediction
04/05/2026
#48
Daniel Merida Aguilar
10:00
Today
#40
Mackenzie McDonald
-
1
-
X
-
2
Match Preview
Qualification match of the Internazionali BNL d'Italia between Daniel Merida Aguilar and Mackenzie McDonald. Merida Aguilar is the favorite with odds of 1.18, while McDonald is the underdog at 4.48. Statistics show that Merida Aguilar has won 60% of his last 10 matches, while McDonald has only won 30%. On clay, Merida Aguilar seems more comfortable.
Our predictions
Victory of Daniel Merida Aguilar
Merida Aguilar is the heavy favorite with odds of 1.18, and his recent statistics (60% wins) are far superior to McDonald's (30%). Moreover, as a favorite, he wins 80% of his matches, compared to 70% for McDonald. The clay surface is favorable to him.
1.19
Confidence
Very high (80%)
Under 2.5 sets in the match
Given the expected dominance of Merida Aguilar and McDonald's tendency to lose quickly (90% of his non-Grand Slam matches in 2 sets), it is very likely that the match will end in 2 sets. Merida Aguilar's statistics as a favorite confirm this trend (60% in 2 sets).
1.37
Confidence
High (65%)
Under 22.5 games in the match
As Merida Aguilar is the heavy favorite, he is likely to win in straight sets. His non-Grand Slam statistics show that he finishes 60% of his matches in 2 sets when favored. McDonald, for his part, finishes 90% of his non-Grand Slam matches in 2 sets. A short match is therefore expected.
1.5
Confidence
High (65%)
Market Signals
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Success Rate per bet
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 6 4 | 3 7 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 60% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 30% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 70% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 0% | 40% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 60% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 83% | 80% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 75% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 10% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 44% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 0% | 0% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 30% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 66% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 50% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 40% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 20% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 66% | 50% |
Betting actions
Manage your bets and alerts
TODAY'S OFFERS
Exclusive new customer offers