Tatjana Malek - Sorana Cirstea: our prediction

Sorana Cirstea is the logical favorite with a very low odd. She has a 70% win rate in her last 10 matches, compared to 50% for Maria. Furthermore, when she is the favorite with odds between 1.0 and 1.2, she wins 100% of her matches (2/2). Maria, as an outsider against a favorite of this caliber, has never won (0/3).

Cirstea, as the heavy favorite, should win the match in 2 sets. Maria, as an outsider, finishes 80% of her matches in 2 sets (excluding Grand Slams). Cirstea, as a favorite, finishes 70% of her matches in 2 sets (excluding Grand Slams). The probability of a 3-set match is therefore low, especially since the match is played on clay (excluding Grand Slams).

Since Cirstea is the heavy favorite, the match should be relatively short. Maria, as an outsider, tends to lose in 2 sets (80% of her matches in 2 sets when she is an outsider). Furthermore, Cirstea, when favored with odds between 1.0 and 1.2, has lost a set in 100% of cases (2/2), which could lengthen the match, but the general trend remains a match in 2 straight sets. The average number of games for this type of favorite/underdog match is often under 22.5.