Marin Cilic - Valentin Vacherot: our prediction
09/05/2026•11:00
#5
Marin Cilic
0:0
11:00
#16
Valentin Vacherot
-
1
-
X
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2
Marin Cilic vs Valentin Vacherot Preview — Internazionali BNL d'Italia
First round match of the 2026 Internazionali d'Italia on clay between Marin Cilic, former top 10 player in comeback, and Valentin Vacherot, a rising player. Cilic, favorite on paper but inconsistent, faces a Vacherot in great form and very solid on clay. Statistics show a trend towards tight matches and three-set matches for Vacherot.
Our Marin Cilic vs Valentin Vacherot predictions
Victory for Valentin Vacherot
Valentin Vacherot is the favorite with odds of 1.47. He has a 60% win rate in his last 10 matches, compared to 50% for Cilic. Most importantly, Vacherot is very solid as a favorite (90% wins), while Cilic has a low win rate as an underdog (40%). Recent form and the clay surface favor Vacherot.
1.48
Confidence
High
Over 2.5 sets in the match
Although Cilic tends to win in 2 sets when favored (90%), he is the underdog here. As an underdog, Cilic has played 3 sets in 30% of his matches, but Vacherot as a favorite has played 3 sets in 40% of his matches. Additionally, Vacherot tends to lose a set as a favorite (50% of his matches). The match promises to be tight, with a high probability of seeing all 3 sets.
2.33
Confidence
High
Over 22.5 games in the match
With a high probability of 3 sets, the total number of games should exceed 22.5. Both players have shown a tendency to play tight matches, especially on clay. Even if Cilic were to win in 2 sets, his matches are often competitive. The 'over 22.5 games' bet is consistent with the 'over 2.5 sets' bet.
1.83
Confidence
Medium
Market signals on Marin Cilic vs Valentin Vacherot
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Marin Cilic vs Valentin Vacherot Statistics
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 5 5 | 6 4 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 50% | 50% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 40% | 50% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 70% | 50% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 90% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 87% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 60% | 100% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 40% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 33% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 70% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 83% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 66% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 40% | 50% |
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