Rugby

Tennis

Aryna Sabalenka - Sorana Cirstea: our prediction

09/05/2026

Aryna Sabalenka

14:30

Today

#15

Sorana Cirstea

Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea Preview — Internazionali BNL d'Italia

Aryna Sabalenka, heavy favorite, faces Sorana Cirstea in the first round of the 2026 Italian Open. Sabalenka dominates on clay with a 90% win rate in her last 10 matches, while Cirstea is less consistent (70% wins). Statistics show Sabalenka often wins in 2 sets (70%), while Cirstea tends to go to 3 sets (50%).

Our Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea predictions

Victory for Aryna Sabalenka

Sabalenka is world No. 1 and favorite with odds of 1.13. She won 90% of her last 10 matches, including 90% as favorite. On clay, she is very solid and Cirstea has only 20% wins as an outsider against opponents with odds between 1.0 and 1.2. Logic and statistics strongly favor Sabalenka.

1.13

Confidence

Very high

Under 22.5 games in the match

With a likely win in 2 sets and often tight but quick scores, the total games should stay under 22.5. Sabalenka is very efficient and Cirstea struggles to compete, limiting the number of games.

1.44

Confidence

High

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Sabalenka wins 70% of her matches in 2 sets when favorite, and Cirstea often loses in 2 sets against strong favorites. The probability of the match ending in 2 sets is high, especially since Sabalenka is very dominant on clay.

1.34

Confidence

High

Market signals on Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Aryna Sabalenka	Sorana Cirstea
Win \| Lose	9 1	7 3
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	70%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	20%	70%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	100%	60%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	90%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	87%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	66%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	50%	20%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	50%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	100%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	30%	40%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	25%	66%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	33%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	0%	50%

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