Aryna Sabalenka - Sorana Cirstea: our prediction
09/05/2026
#1
Aryna Sabalenka
14:30
Today
#15
Sorana Cirstea
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Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea Preview — Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Aryna Sabalenka, heavy favorite, faces Sorana Cirstea in the first round of the 2026 Italian Open. Sabalenka dominates on clay with a 90% win rate in her last 10 matches, while Cirstea is less consistent (70% wins). Statistics show Sabalenka often wins in 2 sets (70%), while Cirstea tends to go to 3 sets (50%).
Our Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea predictions
Victory for Aryna Sabalenka
Sabalenka is world No. 1 and favorite with odds of 1.13. She won 90% of her last 10 matches, including 90% as favorite. On clay, she is very solid and Cirstea has only 20% wins as an outsider against opponents with odds between 1.0 and 1.2. Logic and statistics strongly favor Sabalenka.
1.13
Confidence
Very high
Under 22.5 games in the match
With a likely win in 2 sets and often tight but quick scores, the total games should stay under 22.5. Sabalenka is very efficient and Cirstea struggles to compete, limiting the number of games.
1.44
Confidence
High
Under 2.5 sets in the match
Sabalenka wins 70% of her matches in 2 sets when favorite, and Cirstea often loses in 2 sets against strong favorites. The probability of the match ending in 2 sets is high, especially since Sabalenka is very dominant on clay.
1.34
Confidence
High
Market signals on Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Aryna Sabalenka vs Sorana Cirstea Statistics
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 9 1 | 7 3 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 70% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 20% | 70% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 100% | 60% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 90% | 80% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 87% | 100% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 50% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 20% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 50% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 70% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 100% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 30% | 40% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 25% | 66% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 33% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 0% | 50% |
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