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Naomi Osaka - Iga Swiatek: our prediction

11/05/2026•19:55

Naomi Osaka

0:2

2•6

1•6

Finished

Iga Swiatek

Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek Preview — Internazionali BNL d'Italia

Naomi Osaka faces Iga Swiatek in the first round of the 2026 Italian Open. Swiatek is the heavy favorite with odds of 1.27, while Osaka is the underdog at 3.68. Osaka has a 70% win rate in her last 10 matches, but Swiatek remains solid with 60% wins. The match is played on clay, Swiatek's preferred surface.

Our Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek predictions

Victory for Iga Swiatek

Swiatek is the logical favorite with a very low odds (1.27). She excels on clay, her preferred surface, and has a good record as a favorite (60% wins). Osaka, while solid, is less effective on clay and has never beaten Swiatek on this surface. Confidence is very high.

1.27

Confidence

Very high

Under 2.5 sets in the match

Swiatek is very strong on clay and tends to win in two sets. Osaka, while capable of taking a set, has shown some fragility against dominant players. Statistics show Swiatek wins 50% of her non-Grand Slam matches in 2 sets, and Osaka 70% in 2 sets. A two-set match is very likely.

1.4

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 games in the match

Swiatek tends to win quickly on clay, often in straight sets. Osaka, while combative, may struggle to keep up with the pace. Statistics show Swiatek wins 50% of her non-Grand Slam matches in 2 sets, and Osaka 70% in 2 sets. A short match is likely.

1.52

Confidence

High

Market signals on Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Naomi Osaka	Iga Swiatek
Win \| Lose	7 3	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	60%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	50%	44%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	60%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	66%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	60%	50%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	100%	0%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	33%	44%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	80%	70%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	50%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	66%	55%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	70%	50%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	33%	50%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	50%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	50%	0%

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