Naomi Osaka - Iga Swiatek: our prediction
11/05/2026•19:55
#2
Naomi Osaka
0:2
2•6
1•6
Finished
#1
Iga Swiatek
-
1
-
X
-
2
Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek Preview — Internazionali BNL d'Italia
Naomi Osaka faces Iga Swiatek in the first round of the 2026 Italian Open. Swiatek is the heavy favorite with odds of 1.27, while Osaka is the underdog at 3.68. Osaka has a 70% win rate in her last 10 matches, but Swiatek remains solid with 60% wins. The match is played on clay, Swiatek's preferred surface.
Our Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek predictions
Victory for Iga Swiatek
Swiatek is the logical favorite with a very low odds (1.27). She excels on clay, her preferred surface, and has a good record as a favorite (60% wins). Osaka, while solid, is less effective on clay and has never beaten Swiatek on this surface. Confidence is very high.
1.27
Confidence
Very high
Under 2.5 sets in the match
Swiatek is very strong on clay and tends to win in two sets. Osaka, while capable of taking a set, has shown some fragility against dominant players. Statistics show Swiatek wins 50% of her non-Grand Slam matches in 2 sets, and Osaka 70% in 2 sets. A two-set match is very likely.
1.4
Confidence
High
Under 22.5 games in the match
Swiatek tends to win quickly on clay, often in straight sets. Osaka, while combative, may struggle to keep up with the pace. Statistics show Swiatek wins 50% of her non-Grand Slam matches in 2 sets, and Osaka 70% in 2 sets. A short match is likely.
1.52
Confidence
High
Market signals on Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Naomi Osaka vs Iga Swiatek Statistics
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 7 3 | 6 4 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 20% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 60% | 20% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 50% | 44% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 0% | 0% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 60% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 66% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 60% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 100% | 0% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 50% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 33% | 44% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 70% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 50% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 66% | 55% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 70% | 50% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 33% | 50% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 50% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 50% | 0% |
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