Colton Smith - Alvaro Guillen Meza: our prediction

Both players tend to play tight matches. Smith has lost at least one set in 50% of his matches as a favorite, while Guillen Meza has lost at least one set in 90% of his matches as a favorite. As an underdog, Guillen Meza has won at least one set in 60% of his matches. These statistics suggest a high probability of both players winning at least one set, leading to a 3-set match.

Although the match could go to 3 sets, statistics show that Smith finishes 80% of his matches in 2 sets (outside Grand Slams) and Guillen Meza 60%. Even in 3 sets, the total number of games could stay under 22.5 if the sets are tight but quick. The odds of 1.66 for under 22.5 are more likely than over, as both players tend not to prolong matches excessively.

Although Smith is the favorite, his recent win rate is very low (20%). Guillen Meza has a better overall record (40% wins) and performs better as an underdog (40% wins). Furthermore, Guillen Meza has won at least one set in 60% of his matches as an underdog, showing his ability to compete. The odds of 2.08 offer good value.