Laura Pigossi - Claire Liu: our prediction

Given that Liu is the favorite and tends to win in 2 sets, the total number of games should be under 22.5. A match in 2 tight sets (e.g., 6-4, 6-4) totals 20 games, well below 22.5. Even with a closer set (7-5, 6-3), you get 21 games. The probability of a 3-set match is low (16.67% for Liu), making under 22.5 very likely.

In a Grand Slam, the format is best of 3 sets, but statistics show that Liu, as a favorite, has a low rate of 3-set matches (16.67%). Pigossi, as an underdog, has 33.33% of 3-set matches in Grand Slams. However, Liu tends to win in 2 sets when favored (60% of her matches in 2 sets). The odds for under 2.5 sets are at 1.29, consistent with the probability of a quick Liu victory.

Claire Liu is the favorite with odds at 1.29, indicating a high probability of victory. She has a better overall win rate (50% vs 40%) and performs particularly well when favored (70% wins). Pigossi, as an underdog, has a low win rate (30%). Liu also has a good record as a favorite with similar odds (83.33% wins between 1.21 and 1.5).