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Tennis

Matteo Berrettini - Matteo Arnaldi: our prediction

03/06/2026

Matteo Berrettini

11:00

Tomorrow

#38

Matteo Arnaldi

Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Preview — Roland Garros ATP

First round match of Roland Garros 2026 between Matteo Berrettini and Matteo Arnaldi. The two Italians face each other on clay. Berrettini, a former Wimbledon finalist, is a grass specialist but has shown qualities on clay. Arnaldi is a solid player on the rise. The match promises to be tight, with a tendency to go the distance.

Our Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi predictions

Over 32.5 games in the match

With a high probability that the match will be played in 4 or 5 sets (see previous bet), the total number of games should exceed 32.5. In a Grand Slam, a tight 4-set match can easily reach 40 games or more. Both players tend to lose sets, which lengthens matches.

1.4

Confidence

High

Victory of Player Matteo Arnaldi

Arnaldi has an overall win rate of 90% in his last 10 matches, compared to 70% for Berrettini. As an underdog, Arnaldi wins 60% of the time, while Berrettini only wins 40% as an underdog. Arnaldi is on the rise and seems better suited to clay than Berrettini, whose best tennis is on grass.

2.39

Confidence

High

Over 3.5 sets in the match

Both players have a high percentage of Grand Slam matches ending in 4 sets or more (60% for Berrettini, 70% for Arnaldi). Moreover, when they are underdogs, Arnaldi reaches 80% of matches in 4 sets or more. The match is very balanced and should go to 4 or 5 sets.

1.55

Confidence

High

Market signals on Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Matteo Berrettini	Matteo Arnaldi
Win \| Lose	7 3	9 1
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	80%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	30%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	40%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	40%	20%
% of match in 4 sets or more	60%	80%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	50%	70%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	75%	66%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	20%	60%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	40%	60%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	25%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	40%	50%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	60%	90%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	0%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	50%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	80%	75%

Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite

	1	2
Global	80%	100%
rated between 1.00 and 1.20	0%	0%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.80	80%	100%

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