Matteo Berrettini - Matteo Arnaldi: our prediction
03/06/2026
#6
Matteo Berrettini
11:00
Tomorrow
#38
Matteo Arnaldi
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Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Preview — Roland Garros ATP
First round match of Roland Garros 2026 between Matteo Berrettini and Matteo Arnaldi. The two Italians face each other on clay. Berrettini, a former Wimbledon finalist, is a grass specialist but has shown qualities on clay. Arnaldi is a solid player on the rise. The match promises to be tight, with a tendency to go the distance.
Our Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi predictions
Over 32.5 games in the match
With a high probability that the match will be played in 4 or 5 sets (see previous bet), the total number of games should exceed 32.5. In a Grand Slam, a tight 4-set match can easily reach 40 games or more. Both players tend to lose sets, which lengthens matches.
1.4
Confidence
High
Victory of Player Matteo Arnaldi
Arnaldi has an overall win rate of 90% in his last 10 matches, compared to 70% for Berrettini. As an underdog, Arnaldi wins 60% of the time, while Berrettini only wins 40% as an underdog. Arnaldi is on the rise and seems better suited to clay than Berrettini, whose best tennis is on grass.
2.39
Confidence
High
Over 3.5 sets in the match
Both players have a high percentage of Grand Slam matches ending in 4 sets or more (60% for Berrettini, 70% for Arnaldi). Moreover, when they are underdogs, Arnaldi reaches 80% of matches in 4 sets or more. The match is very balanced and should go to 4 or 5 sets.
1.55
Confidence
High
Market signals on Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi
PROPredictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market
Matteo Berrettini vs Matteo Arnaldi Statistics
Win
 | | |
|---|---|---|
Win | Lose | 7 3 | 9 1 |
Win Lose | ||
% of match in X sets
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 40% | 20% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 80% |
% of match in X sets when favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 30% | 50% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 40% |
% of match in X sets when outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
% of match in 3 sets | 40% | 20% |
% of match in 4 sets or more | 60% | 80% |
Win by being a favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 50% | 70% |
rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 100% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 75% | 66% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 20% | 60% |
Win by being an outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 40% | 60% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 25% | 80% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 40% | 50% |
Has won at least 1 set by being outsider
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 60% | 90% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2 | 0% | 0% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 50% | 100% |
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8 | 80% | 75% |
Has lost at least 1 set by being favorite
| 1 | 2 | |
|---|---|---|
Global | 80% | 100% |
rated between 1.00 and 1.20 | 0% | 0% |
rated between 1.21 and 1.5 | 100% | 100% |
rated between 1.51 and 1.80 | 80% | 100% |
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