Rugby

Tennis

Luisina Giovannini - Polona Hercog: our prediction

07/12/2025•17:10

#190

Luisina Giovannini

0:2

2•6

1•6

Finished

#31

Polona Hercog

Luisina Giovannini vs Polona Hercog Preview — Quito

Polona Hercog, clear favorite with odds at 1.43, faces Luisina Giovannini (odds 2.72) in Quito. Hercog, more experienced, has a good win rate as favorite (80%) and a strong ability to win at least one set as an outsider (80%). Giovannini, the underdog, has a high win rate as favorite (83.3%) but struggles against higher-ranked opponents. No injuries reported. The match should be close, with a significant probability of seeing over 2.5 sets.

Our Luisina Giovannini vs Polona Hercog predictions

Polona Hercog to Win

Polona Hercog is the designated favorite (odds 1.43). Her statistics as a favorite are solid (80% wins). She also has an excellent ability to win at least one set as an outsider (80%), showing her resilience. Against Giovannini, less experienced and with a low win rate as an outsider (22.2%), Hercog has a significant advantage.

1.62

Confidence

High

Under 22.5 Games in the Match

Although a three-set match is likely, statistics on close sets are not provided. However, Hercog has a two-set win rate as a favorite of 80%, and Giovannini has a two-set loss rate as an outsider of 77.8%. If Hercog dominates, the match could end in two sets with relatively clear scores (e.g., 6-3, 6-4 = 19 games), which would be under the 22.5 threshold. This is a complementary bet to Hercog's win but tolerates a close three-set match.

1.59

Confidence

Medium

Over 2.5 Sets in the Match

Both players have a three-set match rate of 30% in their last 10 non-Grand Slam matches. Hercog loses a set as a favorite in 40% of cases, and Giovannini wins at least one set as an outsider in 33.3% of cases. This data, combined with the odds difference, suggests Giovannini could win a set, leading to a three-set match.

2.45

Confidence

Medium

Market signals on Luisina Giovannini vs Polona Hercog

PRO

Predictions detected by our algorithms and recommended by the market

Luisina Giovannini vs Polona Hercog Statistics

History

Surface

Win

	Luisina Giovannini	Polona Hercog
Win \| Lose	6 4	6 4
Win Lose

% of match in X sets

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	30%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when favorite

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	50%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

% of match in X sets when outsider

	1	2

% of match in 3 sets	0%	33%
% of match in 4 sets or more	0%	0%

Win by being a favorite

	1	2
Global	83%	80%
rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
rated between 1.21 and 1.5	100%	100%
rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	50%

Win by being an outsider

	1	2
Global	22%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	0%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	25%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	60%

Has won at least 1 set by being outsider

	1	2
Global	33%	80%
Against an opponent rated between 1.0 and 1.2	100%	100%
Against an opponent rated between 1.21 and 1.5	0%	50%
Against an opponent rated between 1.51 and 1.8	0%	80%